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The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets Amazon. Nassim Nicholas Taleb 9. Books. ReviewAn iconoclastic tour de force. Exocets Evening StandardBrilliant John KayExcellent and thought provoking. Financial TimesOne of the smartest books of all time FortuneWall Streets principal dissident Malcolm Gladwell. From the Inside Flap. Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others Is it really down to skill and strategy or something altogether more unpredictable This book is the word of mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets we hear an entrepreneur has vision or a trader is talented, but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you. See all Product description. Black swan theory Wikipedia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying which presumed black swans did not exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the wild. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain The disproportionate role of high profile, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. The non computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods owing to the very nature of small probabilities. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare events massive role in historical affairs. Unlike the earlier and broader black swan problem in philosophy i. Talebs black swan theory refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences. 1 xxi More technically, in the scientific monograph Silent Risk,2 Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability. 2BackgroundeditThe phrase black swan derives from a Latin expression its oldest known occurrence is the poet Juvenals characterization of something being rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan. 3 1. When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist. The importance of the metaphor lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproved. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the logic of any system of thought, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic. Juvenals phrase was a common expression in 1. London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers. 4 In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. NZD New Zealand Dollar Latest News, Analysis and Forex. httpswww. dailyfx. comnzd Latest NZD market news, analysis and New Zealand Dollar trading forecast. The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar, philosopher, and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It was released on April. Issuu is a digital publishing platform that makes it simple to publish magazines, catalogs, newspapers, books, and more online. Easily share your publications and get. Opacity What We Do Not See. A Philosophical Notebook, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The mathematical version is here. Non philosophorum sed philosophiae historiae. However, in 1. 69. Dutch explorers led by Willem de Vlamingh became the first Europeans to see black swans, in Western Australia. 5 The term subsequently metamorphosed to connote the idea that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 1. John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification. 6Black swan events were discussed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2. Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2. 00. 7 book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as black swansundirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 2. Taleb asserts 7What we call here a Black Swan and capitalize it is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective though not prospective predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. IdentifyingeditBased on the authors criteria The event is a surprise to the observer. The event has a major effect. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals. Coping witheditThe practical aim of Talebs book is not to attempt to predict events which are unpredictable, but to build robustness against negative events while still exploiting positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous black swan events and are exposed to unpredictable losses. On the subject of business, and quantitative finance in particular, Taleb critiques the widespread use of the normal distribution model employed in financial engineering, calling it a Great Intellectual Fraud. Taleb elaborates the robustness concept as a central topic of his later book, Antifragile Things That Gain From Disorder. In the second edition of The Black Swan, Taleb provides Ten Principles for a Black Swan Robust Society. 1 3. Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher hence the objective should be to avoid being the turkey by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to turn the Black Swans white. 9Epistemological approacheditTalebs black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology, as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, the fourth quadrant. 1. Talebs problem is about epistemic limitations in some parts of the areas covered in decision making. These limitations are twofold philosophical mathematical and empirical human known epistemic biases. The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events as these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priori, or an extrapolating theory accordingly predictions of events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small. In the fourth quadrant, knowledge is uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness. citation neededAccording to Taleb,1. Hume, Mill, and Popper focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations. The central and unique attribute of Talebs black swan event is its high profile. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight. One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a normal distribution. These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players sometimes assume normal distributions when using value at risk models, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions. 1. Taleb said I dont particularly care about the usual. If you want to get an idea of a friends temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics Indeed the normal is often irrelevant. Almost everything in social life is produced by rare but consequential shocks and jumps all the while almost everything studied about social life focuses on the normal, particularly with bell curve methods of inference that tell you close to nothing. Why Because the bell curve ignores large deviations, cannot handle them, yet makes us confident that we have tamed uncertainty. 48ESA Packaged Gas Furnace Air Conditioner with Puron R410A Refrigerant. 50632603 Issue 1701 Page 1 of 16 Save these instructions for future reference INSTALLATION AND MAINTENANCE INSTRUCTIONS MGE4 Series Gas Heating with Electric Cooling. Some of the best built, most efficient furnaces available today. A properly installed Carrier furnace can make a huge difference to both your indoor comfort and your. ES A Packaged Gas Furnace Air Conditioner. Standard Features. Up to 1. 3 SEERUp to 8. AFUESound as low as 7. Blower motor aided, enhanced summer dehumidification. Single stage compressor operation. 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To the original owner, when product is used in an owner occupied residence, a 1. Warranty period is 5 years if not registered within 9. Jurisdictions where warranty benefits cannot be conditioned on registration will automatically receive a 1. See warranty certificate for complete details. To the original owner, when product is used in an owner occupied residence, a 2. Warranty period is 1. Jurisdictions where warranty benefits cannot be conditioned on registration will automatically receive the extended registered heat exchanger parts limited warranty period. See warranty certificate for details. To the original owner, when product is used in an owner occupied residence, a Lifetime heat exchanger parts limited warranty upon timely registration of your new equipment. Warranty period is 2. Jurisdictions where warranty benefits cannot be conditioned on registration will automatically receive the extended registered heat exchanger parts limited warranty period. See warranty certificate for details. Ask your Carrier dealer for details. Revista da Receita Federal estudos tributrios e aduaneiros by Sidnei de Braga Junior. Download Update. Star Update. Star. Download the. free trial version below to get started. Double click the downloaded file. Update. Star is compatible with Windows platforms. Update. Star has been tested to meet all of the technical requirements to be compatible with. Windows 1. 0, 8. 1, Windows 8, Windows 7, Windows Vista, Windows Server 2. Windows. XP, 3. 2 bit and 6. Simply double click the downloaded file to install it. Update. Star Free and Update. Star Premium come with the same installer. Update. Star includes support for many languages such as English, German, French, Italian, Hungarian, Russian and many more. You can choose your language settings from within the program. The database recognizes 1,746,000 software titles and delivers updates for your software including minor upgrades. Apple TV vs Google Chromecast Ultra. Apple has followed in Googles steps by announcing a 4. K version of its media streaming box. Though the fourth gen non 4. K Apple TV is still available at 1. K version that also supports HDR is now available from 1. GB. Both the Chromecast Ultra and Apple TV enable you to stream video and audio to television. And both come with i. OS integration, so you can use your i. Phone or i. Pad to control what plays on your TV. The Apple TV and Chromecast both have app integration enabling you to stream from popular media services such as BBC i. Player, Netflix and You. Tube. The Google Chromecast Ultra costs just 6. Should you buy an Apple TV or a Google Chromecast Ultra Both devices enable UK Apple fans to stream video and music to a television. And both are integrated with iOS. Chromecast Setup Download We guide you on How to Chromecast. com setup wifi Connection on your PC, Android iOS, Mac. Chromecast Extension Download. Apple TV is 1. 49 for the 3. GB model, and the fifth gen 4. K box is 1. 79 for 3. GB and 1. 99 for 6. GB. The Apple TV 4. K will be available to pre order ion 1. September and buy on 2. September Buy Apple TV here. But the Apple TV works as a standalone player, and features a Siri remote control and support for apps. The Apple TV is much more than a media streaming device you can play games on it with support for console like controllers. The Chromecast responds to apps on your i. Phone or i. Pad or on an Android device. Despite working very differently, both offer similar media functionality on the surface level You. Tube, BBC i. Player and Netflix on your television. But should an Apple user in the UK buy a Chromecast or an Apple TV Our Apple TV vs Google Chromecast test looks at the following What are the Apple TV and Google Chromecast Ultra How to set up an Apple TV and Chromecast. Streaming video, music and photos to the Apple TV and Chromecast. What apps and services are available for Apple TV and Google Chromecast Read next Does Apple TV support Google Chromecast What is the Apple TV The Apple TV is a media streaming device designed and sold by Apple. The first Apple TV was released in 2. The current Apple TV is a small black box measuring roughly 1. K and HDR will be on sale on 2. September. The Apple TV is designed to sit underneath the television set and connects via HDMI. Were looking at a fourth generation Apple TV here, which was released in 2. The original plan for the Apple TV was simply to create a device that made it easy for people to shift content from i. Tunes running on a Mac computer to the television. So you could sync and watch movies, music and photos. The Apple TV then evolved to offer direct streaming of content from an i. Phone or i. Pad using an Apple technology called Air. Play. Apps that support Air. Play can send video directly from the i. Pad or i. Phone to your television. A wide range of apps support Air. Play including major media streaming services and many games. If an app doesnt support Air. Play you can mirror the display of an i. Pad, i. Phone or recent Mac computer and view the whole display. The current iteration of the Apple TV also involves App Store support. The apps contain a range of built in apps with big hitters like Netflix, You. Tube, and Sky Sports alongside smaller names like Vevo, Vimeo and Crunchyroll. Amazon Prime Video and Spotify remain noticeable absentees from the Apple TV App Store, but Amazon Prime Video is coming, and you can stream content from these services to the Apple TV. App Store support gives the Apple TV another ace card. You can play games on it. Either using the supplied Siri remote control with a touch surface, or by buying an optional games controller. Although at 4. 0 this takes the overal cost of the Apple TV into games console territory. Much as we love the Apple TV, its not as effective for gamers as a similar priced Xbox One or PS4 console. The Siri remote control enables you to chat to your television. Reqeusting programs from supporting apps, such as Netflix. Finally can also access i. Tunes to rent, buy and stream any movies, music or content you have bought from the i. Tunes Store. This content can be streamed, along with your i. Tunes Match music, directly from Apple to the Apple TV. With the fifth generation the Apple TV will finally support 4. K video playback, as well as HDR. What is the Google Chromecast Ultra Google Chromecast is a round HDMI dongle that plugs directly into the HDMI socket on a television. You connect the Chromcast to your local Wi Fi working using an i. OS or Android app available on the app store. The Chromecast is USB powered so you can connect it to a USB connection on your television, or use the supplied USB Power Adaptor to plug it into the mains. Once it is set up you can use it to stream video, music and other content from supporting providers to the television screen. A supporting internet service integrates Chromecast code into its apps, and a Chromecast button will appear alongside the Air. Play button on i. OS devices. One tap of this Chromecast button in an apps, and the Chromecast device starts streaming the content from the service provider to the television. Unlike the i. Phone, the Chromecast Ultra does not stream the content from the i. Phone, or i. Pad or Android device. Instead, it streams the media directly from the internet. The Chromecast Ultra has faster innards than the Chromecast it replaces, so it responds slightly faster. More importantly, it has support for 4. K video streaming from compatible sources. Its slightly more expensive than the regular Chromecast 2 which does not support 4. K. Thereis no remote control and you control the Chromecast dongle from your i. Phone or i. Pad or an Android device. In key apps, such as You. Tube and BBC i. Player, you tap the new Chromecast icon and the video continues playing on your television. Chromecast has been available in the US for a while now, and Google has a SDK Software Development Kit available so other app developers can integrate the Chromecast button into their apps BBC i. Player, You. Tube and Netflix are big hitters. Alongside this is a plug in for Chrome on the Dekstop called Chrome Cast. With this installed in Mac OS X you can stream any web tab from a Chrome browser to the Chromecast. This enables you to stream content from any other web based video service. We found it even worked with ITV Player, which is currently locked on the i. Pad and i. Phone. How to set up Apple TVGetting the Apple TV up and running is remarkably simple. Here are the steps Plug in a HDMI cable youll need to buy one separately. Use the Apple TV remote to click on English. Select your Wi Fi network. Enter your Wi Fi password. You can also use the Remote App available from the App Store to enter the Wi Fi password. It will connect to the Apple TV that is in Setup Mode via Bluetooth and you can use the i. Phone or i. Pads on screen keyboard to enter the Wi Fi password. See How to set up Apple TV Starting guide and navigation shortcuts. How to set up Google Chromecast. Inside the Google Chromecast UK box you find the Chromecast dongle, a HDMI cable extender in case the dongle does not fit into the television, a USB power cable and a UK power adaptor. We tested out setting up the Chromecast using an i. Phone. The process was not as straightforward as the Apple TV but certainly not difficult Plug the USB cable into the back of the Chromecast and plug it into the mains adaptor. Plug the Chromecast dongle into the television using the HDMI cable. Visit www. chromecast. Phones web browser to download the Chromecast app from the app store or click this App Store Link. Click Accept and wait for the app to scan and locate your Chromecast. Tap on Set Up A New Chromecast. Tap on Home Settings Wi. Fi and tap on Chromecast to select it. Return to the Chromecast app it should say We Found a New Chromecast. Tap on Next. Select your Country you should tap United Kingdom. Pick a name it will be Chromecast with some numbers after it. Tap Next. Tap Choose a Wi Fi network and tap on your Wi Fi network in the Select Network screen. Enter your Wi Fi network password and tap Set Up. So, not as simple. But certainly not beyond the technical limit of the average beginner. Its the same system that lots of Apple Air. Play speakers use to connect to the local network they broadcast a public network to a corresponding app, which you then use to add your Wi Fi router and password information to the device. This then enables the device to connect to the Wi Fi router. Google makes a good job of making this as easy as possible, but we still dont think this is simple enough for some consumers who just want a plug and play solution. Set up is absolutely a score one for the Apple TV. Download Google Chrome for Windows 1. Google Chrome is a free web browser and fast for your Windows 1. After Download and Install. Google Chrome for Windows 1. Search the web, Autofill your info in forms, also you can Sign in to Chrome. Before Download Google Chrome, follow steps in below to use Google Chrome for Windows 1. See How to Update Google Chrome Latest Version. Search the web on Google Chrome for Windows 1. Find what youre looking for faster by entering search words right in the address bar at the top of the Chrome window. You can searching in the address bar works. When you start typing in the address bar, Chrome will show you suggested phrases or URLs. If youre on a computer, you might also see icons after the suggestions Once you click on a suggestion, Chrome opens that page for you. You can make your searches easier and faster by using some of the search tips below Search words or images. Highlight a word, phrase, or image and right click it on your computer. Click the option to search for it with your default search engine. For example, you might see something like Search Google for emperor penguin or Search Bing for this Image. Paste and search. Highlight a word or phrase and copy it. Right click the address bar on your screen. Click Paste and search. Highlight and drag search. Highlight a word or phrase and drag it to the address bar. Chrome will automatically display the search results for your highlighted text. Autofill your info in forms on Google Chrome for Windows 1. Chrome Autofill can save your information when you fill out a form. You can also add, change, or delete the following information any time Name, Organization, Street address, city, stateprovince, zip code, and country, Phone number and Email address. See the option in below Open Chrome. In the top right, click the icon you see Menu or More. Click Settings Show advanced settings. Under Passwords and forms, click Manage Autofill settings. To add new address information, click Add new street address. To edit address information, hover over the item and click Edit. To delete address information, hover over the item and click the X. This doesnt work for addresses added in Google Payments. To save new credit card information, click Add new credit card. Cards saved in Payments show up in forms only when youre signed in to Chrome and if you have a Payments account. To edit credit card information, hover over the item and click Edit. To delete credit card information, hover over the item and click the X. You can also uncheck the box next to Show addresses and credit cards from Google Payments to stop this info from showing up in autofill entries. Sign in to Google Chrome for Windows 1. You can save and sync things like your bookmarks, history, passwords, and other settings to your Google Account. You should only sign in to Chrome from trusted computers. To keep your data safe, we recommend you dont sign in if youre on a public computer. How its different than signing into a website. Website sign in Signing in to a website allows the website to remember some of your preferences and information. Chrome sign in Signing in to Chrome connects your Google Account to your browser for a more personalized browsing experience. All of your Chrome data, like your bookmarks, history, passwords, and other settings, will be synced to your Google Account and available on any device where you sign in to Chrome. Youll also be automatically signed in to Gmail, You. Tube, Search, or other Google services. How signing in to Google Chrome helps you. Your browsing data, like your bookmarks, history, passwords, and other settings, are saved and synced to your Google Account. That way, your data is available on any device where you sign in to Chrome with the same account. And, any changes you make to your data on one device sync to all the devices where youre signed in to Chrome. If your computer is stolen or broken, you can get back your bookmarks, history, passwords, and other settings just by signing in to Chrome again on your new computer. Your Google services, like Gmail, You. Tube, and Search are easier to use, since youll automatically be signed in to them as well. How Google Chrome works with Web App Activity. You can also get a more customized experience in Google products other than Chrome when you link your Chrome history with your search and browse activity from Web App Activity. If Include history from Chrome and other apps in your Web App Activity is checked on the Web App Activity controls page, Google uses your synchronized browsing data to provide personalized Google products and services to you. You can change your preference any time, and manage individual activities associated with your Google account. Keep your data safe when signed in to Google Chrome. Dont sign in to Chrome if youre using a public or untrusted computer. A copy of your data is stored on the computer youre using when you sign in, and other people who use the same computer can see it. To keep your information secure, synced data is encrypted when it travels between your computer and Googles servers. As an added layer of protection, your saved passwords are encrypted on Googles servers using a cryptographic key. You also have the option to encrypt all your synced data. You can remove your synced data from your account at any time. Manage the data that get synced across devices. You can control what gets synced. Steps to sign in to Google Chrome for Windows 1. To sign in to Chrome, youll need a Google Account. Once you have one, follow these steps Open Chrome. In the top right, click the button with your name or the person icon . Click Sign in to Chrome. Sign in with your Google Account. To customize your sync settings, click Settings. This lets you choose what information to share across other devices where youre signed into Chrome. Note If youve already created a sync passphrase to protect your data, youll need to provide the passphrase when you sign in. If you forget your passphrase, youll need to reset sync. How to Download and Install Google Chrome for Windows 1. Download Google Chrome. Extract file. Double click file. Follow instructions to install. Download the free trial version below to get started. Doubleclick the downloaded file to install the software. But emails between a hardware engineer at Google and Googles attorneys made public today show that the files downloaded by Levandowski might not have been. How to Make a Jon Snow Cloak Out of an IKEA Rug. I bet you, like me, took a gander at the cloaks of the Nights Watch on Game of Thrones and thought Damn, if they werent so flea infested and covered in the blood of the dead Id wear that in a heartbeat. Its increasingly difficult to do anything on your phone nowadays without sharing your geolocation information. Certain Snapchat filters, Facebook status updates. I bet you, like me, took a gander at the cloaks of the Nights Watch on Game of Thrones and thought Damn, if they werent so fleainfested and covered in the. Where do I even get a cloak like that Well you can fashion a cloak of your own the same way the shows costume designer does with SKOLD and LUDDE sheepskin rugs from friggin IKEA. Game of Thrones costume designer Michele Clapton explained the origin of the rug cloaks in a talk about medieval garments at the Getty Museum in Los Angeles. In short, theres nothing fancy about them. The ratty cloaks on the Nights Watch members arent made of mammoth pelts but sheepskin rugs from IKEA that are dyed, roughed up, and shorn to look like theyve been to the Fist of the First Men and back. These caps are actually IKEA rugs. Its a bit of a trick. We take anything we can. We cut and we shaved them, and we added strong leather straps and then break them down. I want the audience to almost smell the costumes. The rugs are further distressed, and receive a thorough waxing and frosting to give them that lived in for way too long look. Since learning the news, people have apparently gone to IKEA to purchase the sheepskin rugs in droves, presumably to wrap themselves up in them and prepare for the coming of the Night King. How to Make Your Own. Feeling creativeClapton may be a professional costumer, but that doesnt mean you have to fawn over the cloaks in the show while you shiver in the cold. You can make your own with a few materials and some sartorial know how. As for measurements, be sure to look at this handy guide to figure out how much fabric youll need. Got a favorite pair of jeans that have seen better days You dont have to ditch them or turnRead more Read. Gather Your Materials. Rug and fabric Of course, if you want to dress like the Nights Watch, youll need the same fabric they use. That means a trip to IKEA is in order. Snag your SKOLD and LUDDE rugs just call the store beforehand to make sure theyre still in stock and get out. Actually, you should probably grab some black DITTE fabric for the rest of the cloak before you leave the Walmart of Sweden. They sell it by the yard, which is nice. Dye I think you can tell that the blindingly white IKEA rugs arent exactly a good match for your Nights Watch cloak just yet. Heres where clothing dye comes into play. Youve probably dyed your favorite jeans to bring them back into your outfit rotation, and you can use the same process to turn that white rug pitch black. Straps and buckles A cursory search for leather straps and buckles yields hundreds of results online. Your best bet Figuring out the strap length and picking a supplier you trust, perhaps one familiar with leather goods. As for the buckles, you could always just search e. Bay, where suppliers tend to place miscellaneous goods like buckles for cheap compared to places like Amazon. Sewing materials The Nights Watch didnt have a sewing machine, but you can bet your ass Clapton did while she made these cloaks. Granted, your consumer grade sewing machine might not be able to get through the leather, so you might have to sew that part yourself with a needle, thread, scissors, and a hole punch. Measure Twice, Cut Once. Of course, before you go off looking for rugs, sewing kits, and fabric to stitch together a cloak of your own, be sure you know how much material you need. Longer cloaks require more fabric, of course, but if its too long or too short youll be left tripping over yourself or cursing your frigid calves. Some fabrics might not be wide enough to be cut in a semicircle on their own. In that case you may have to stitch multiple pieces together, either in a wedge shape think pizza slices, or by filling in the outer edge of the semicircle with smaller, curved pieces of the same fabric. Distress the Shit Out of It. I havent see a pristine cloak on any member of the Nights Watch. What makes you so special Its time to put that newfound cloak through the wringer. Grab some scissors, throw it in a bucket full of rocks, let your dog roll around in it for a few days minutes, and voila Your very own cloak, ready to weather storms from Hardhome to Highgarden. Google Engineer Dismissed the Importance of Stolen Self Driving Car Documents. Googles self driving car company Waymo sued Uber in February, claiming that Anthony Levandowski, a former Waymo engineer, stole 1. Waymos lidar systems before accepting a job with Ubers self driving car program. But emails between a hardware engineer at Google and Googles attorneys made public today show that the files downloaded by Levandowski might not have been considered to be the crown jewels of Waymos self driving car efforts. The Google engineer said that the files Levandowski accessed were low value and that his download doesnt ring the alarm bells for me. The emails reflect a common refrain among engineers who develop autonomous technologythat software, not hardware, is where companies can gain an advantage over each other. Waymo isnt the only company developing its own custom lidar system, but its also invested heavily in software for simulation and navigation. Waymos lawsuit focuses primarily on details of its circuit boards, which it claims Uber copied with Levandowskis help. But of the nine trade secret claims Waymo is bringing to trial next month, only five are included in the 1. Levandowski allegedly stolethe other four came from elsewhere, so Waymos lawsuit isnt based on the documents alone. Levandowski abruptly quit his job at Waymo in January 2. Otto. When Uber acquired Otto just months after its launch, Google began to worry. And when a Google employee was accidentally cced on a December email to Uber engineers showing a diagram of a lidar circuit board that looked remarkably similar to Waymos own custom design, Googles investigation into Levandowski picked up steam. But even prior to the cc fail, Google was trying to figure out what exactly Levandowski had done during his final months at the company, and how he had convinced several employees to launch a competing startup with him. A lawyer for Google contacted Waymo employees in September 2. Levandowski and two other former employees. The lawyer, Tom Gorman of Keker, Van Nest Peters, zeroed in on the fact that Levandowski had accessed a database of lidar files only once, copying it in its entirety. However, the Google engineer he corresponded with didnt find Levandowskis behavior very suspicous. Its all electronics designsschematics and PCB printed circuit board layoutsand the component library for their creation. It was considered low value enough that we had even considered hosting it off of Google infrastructure, the engineer wrote. He was a high level manager, and not doing any direct technical contribution at this level. Its not particularly surprising that he might check things out once in the misguided dream of maybe making individual contribution or maybe taking a look at the progress of a widget. It clearly wasnt part of his routine. Doesnt ring the alarm bells for me. In another email, the engineer explained that these schematics werent valuable compared to Waymos proprietary software. At least historically, high value has been algorithms and software. The hardware at all levels was a second class citizen. Maybe opinions have changed, he wrote. A redacted version of the emails was initially filed in August. Uber has pushed for several weeks to lift the redactions on the emails, and Waymo finally submitted a more complete version today. For months, Google has based its lawsuit on 1. Uber spokesperson in a statement on Wednesday. Now we learn from internal emails that Google knew from the beginning that these files were actually considered low value. This is why Google has been fighting so hard to conceal the emails that are being made public today, an Uber spokesperson said in a statement. However, Waymo notes that the engineers impressions of Levandowskis behavior were written before the notorious cc fail, and before Waymo realized that Levandowski tried to hide evidence of the download. Uber is trying to make something out of nothing. The emails reflect initial impressions of a limited set of facts at only the very beginning of the investigation. As we later learned, Levandowski downloaded the files on the very same days he met with Uber and he actively tried to erase his digital footprints, suggesting he knew he was taking valuable materials. The egregious theft of Waymos files is just one piece of evidence among many others that Uber is using stolen Waymo trade secrets, a Waymo spokesperson said. Download the free trial version below to get started. Doubleclick the downloaded file to install the software. HITTING THE POTHOLES. A swimming spots future. Wellness Issue Challenge DAY 2. One hour of hot yoga. Sweat profusely. JANUARY 2027, 2016 VOL. 21 NO. 19. Even if you make off with an ATM, it can be incredibly hard to crack them open. But given the brute force already demonstrated by these criminals, something tells me. Latest Topics ZDNet. By registering you become a member of the CBS Interactive family of sites and you have read and agree to the Terms of Use, Privacy Policy and Video Services Policy. You agree to receive updates, alerts and promotions from CBS and that CBS may share information about you with our marketing partners so that they may contact you by email or otherwise about their products or services. 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